AustraliaFootballSeason 26/27A-League season simulation
Model estimate Sydney FC — 34% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion play-off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 7 | 37.9 | 34% | 92% |
| Melbourne City | 7 | 35 | 15% | 81% |
| Melbourne Victory | 3 | 33.9 | 13% | 76% |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 5 | 33.9 | 12% | 76% |
| Auckland FC | 5 | 33.4 | 10% | 72% |
| Wellington Phoenix | 10 | 33.4 | 10% | 72% |
| Macarthur FC | 5 | 28.3 | 2% | 35% |
| Perth Glory | 6 | 27.6 | 1% | 31% |
| Adelaide United | 1 | 27.3 | 1% | 29% |
| Brisbane Roar | 7 | 26.2 | 1% | 21% |
| Newcastle Jets | 2 | 24 | <1% | 13% |
| Central Coast Mariners | 2 | 18.8 | <1% | 2% |
TitlePromotion play-offxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC | 34 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Melbourne City | 15 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||
| Melbourne Victory | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Western Sydney Wanderers | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Auckland FC | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |
| Wellington Phoenix | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Macarthur FC | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 4 |
| Perth Glory | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 5 |
| Adelaide United | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 7 |
| Brisbane Roar | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 9 | |
| Newcastle Jets | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 24 | 16 | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 20 | 58 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 109 remaining matches · data version 870z11. 109 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.