NEC Nijmegen started on the front foot and controlled the first 15 minutes. 35' — NEC Nijmegen took the lead: 0-1. Kevin Kers scored it. 38' — NEC Nijmegen extended the lead: 0-2. Dusan Tadic scored it. Half time: 0-2, with NEC Nijmegen applying more of the pressure.
56' — Utrecht pulled one back: 1-2. Yoann Cathline scored it. 59' — NEC Nijmegen extended the lead: 1-3. Dusan Tadic scored it. 64' — Utrecht pulled one back: 2-3. Dani de Wit scored it. After 76' the momentum swung to Utrecht. After 91' the momentum swung to NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen won 2-3.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
UtrechtDrawNEC Nijmegen
Pre-match model estimate: Utrecht 42%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen 36%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
UtrechtNEC Nijmegen
0'15'30'HT60'75'90'
Last 5 min058
Last 15 min7348
How is this calculated?
From 0 to 100 per team: a weighted total per minute — shot on target ×5, shot off target or blocked ×3, corner ×2, dangerous attack ×1. An ordinary minute reads about 50; a long spell of heavy pressure reads above 85.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Utrecht win in 42% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and NEC Nijmegen win 36%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 68%. About 9.6 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 3-2 away win for NEC Nijmegen against Utrecht in the Eredivisie. Dusan Tadic scored twice for NEC Nijmegen. The half-time score was 0-2.
The story of the match
The early pressure came from NEC Nijmegen, who controlled the opening 15 minutes. NEC Nijmegen took the lead on 35 minutes thanks to Kevin Kers. Dusan Tadic made it 2-0 for NEC Nijmegen after 38 minutes, set up by Deveron Fonville. NEC Nijmegen led 2-0 at the break.
Utrecht pulled one back to make it 1-2 in the 56th minute: Yoann Cathline, set up by Ángel Alarcón. Just 3 minutes later (59') NEC Nijmegen extended their lead to 3-1, Dusan Tadic on target. Utrecht pulled one back to make it 2-3 in the 64th minute: Dani de Wit, set up by Nordin Amrabat. Utrecht took over after the 76th minute, pinning NEC Nijmegen back. From the 91st minute the pressure shifted towards NEC Nijmegen.
Match statistics
Utrecht had 23 shots (6 on target) to NEC Nijmegen's 20 (6). Utrecht won 3 corners, NEC Nijmegen 8. NEC Nijmegen produced 52 dangerous attacks to Utrecht's 27.
The bigger picture
Utrecht drop from 12th to 14th on 12 points. The result lifts NEC Nijmegen to 11th with 14 points, up from 13th. Utrecht have now scored in 6 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
