9' — CD Mafra took the lead: 0-1. L. Neves scored it. Half time: 0-1.
50' — UD Santarem equalised: 1-1. D. Vinhas scored it. 70' — UD Santarem completed the turnaround: 2-1. R. Camacho scored it. UD Santarem won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
UD SantaremDrawCD Mafra
Pre-match model estimate: UD Santarem 29%, draw 25%, CD Mafra 46%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): UD Santarem win in 29% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and CD Mafra win 46%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 56%. About 10.3 corners on average. About 4.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Mafra took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to L. Neves, set up by A. Ngom. Half-time: 0-1, CD Mafra in front.
UD Santarem drew level at 1-1 in the 50th minute: D. Vinhas. UD Santarem completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 70 minutes thanks to R. Camacho.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 8-4, 4-3 on target. UD Santarem won 7 corners, CD Mafra 4. CD Mafra produced 155 dangerous attacks to UD Santarem's 115.
What the result means
In the table, UD Santarem are 4th with 13 points. CD Mafra sit 5th on 12 points in the standings. UD Santarem have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. UD Santarem ended CD Mafra's unbeaten run of 5 matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
