Toulouse vs Strasbourg Alsace: the story of the match
45' — Toulouse took the lead: 1-0. Santiago Hidalgo scored it. Half time: 1-0.
56' — Toulouse extended the lead: 2-0. Mark McKenzie scored it. 68' — Strasbourg Alsace pulled one back: 2-1. Giovanni Reyna scored it. 76' — Toulouse extended the lead: 3-1. Thomas Jørgensen scored it. Toulouse won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
ToulouseDrawStrasbourg Alsace
Pre-match model estimate: Toulouse 45%, draw 24%, Strasbourg Alsace 31%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Toulouse win in 45% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Strasbourg Alsace win 31%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 58%. About 8.3 corners on average. About 4.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Toulouse took the lead in the 45th minute: Santiago Hidalgo. It was Toulouse 1-0 Strasbourg Alsace at half-time.
VAR checked and confirmed the Toulouse goal on 49 minutes. Mark McKenzie made it 2-0 for Toulouse after 56 minutes, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr.. Strasbourg Alsace pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 68 minutes thanks to Giovanni Reyna. Toulouse extended their lead to 3-1 on 76 minutes thanks to Thomas Jørgensen, set up by Rasmus Nicolaisen.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 6-5, 5-4 on target. Corners finished 7-1.
What it means
Toulouse stay 12th on 13 points. Strasbourg Alsace remain 13th, now with 10 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Ligue 1
