Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima: the story of the match
5' — Sporting Cristal took the lead: 1-0. Luis Iberico scored it. 25' — Alianza Lima equalised: 1-1. Jairo Vélez scored it. 42' — Alianza Lima completed the turnaround: 1-2. Erick Castillo scored it. 45' — Sporting Cristal equalised: 2-2. Herná Barcos scored it. Half time: 2-2.
90' — Sporting Cristal completed the turnaround: 3-2. Santiago González scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Sporting Cristal won 3-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Sporting CristalDrawAlianza Lima
Pre-match model estimate: Sporting Cristal 40%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sporting Cristal win in 40% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Alianza Lima win 34%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 52%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 25%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sporting Cristal took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to Luis Iberico. Alianza Lima drew level at 1-1 in the 25th minute: Jairo Vélez. Alianza Lima completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 42 minutes thanks to Erick Castillo. Herná Barcos equalised for Sporting Cristal at 2-2 after 45 minutes. It was Sporting Cristal 2-2 Alianza Lima at half-time.
Late on, in the 90th minute, Sporting Cristal completed the turnaround at 3-2 through Santiago González.
The statistics
Sporting Cristal won 4 corners, Alianza Lima 5.
What the result means
Sporting Cristal have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. The result ends Alianza Lima's run of 3 straight wins.
Primera Division, Clausura
