Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga: the story of the match
11' — Sarpsborg 08 FF took the lead: 1-0. Camil Mmaee scored it. Half time: 1-0.
49' — Sarpsborg 08 FF extended the lead: 2-0. Camil Mmaee scored it. 59' — Valerenga pulled one back: 2-1. D. Gjengaar scored it. 65' — Valerenga equalised: 2-2. D. Gjengaar scored it. 69' — Sarpsborg 08 FF went back in front: 3-2. D. Karlsbakk scored it. Sarpsborg 08 FF won 3-2.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Sarpsborg 08 FF win in 53% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Valerenga win 26%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 65%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Valerenga3-2 in the Kupa at Sarpsborg Stadion. Sarpsborg 08 FF owed a lot to Camil Mmaee, who struck twice. It was 1-0 at half-time.
Key moments
Sarpsborg 08 FF took the lead on 11 minutes thanks to Camil Mmaee, set up by A. Hiim. Sarpsborg 08 FF led 1-0 at the break.
Sarpsborg 08 FF extended their lead to 2-0 in the 49th minute: Camil Mmaee, set up by N. Williams. Valerenga pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 59 minutes thanks to D. Gjengaar, set up by M. Westergaard. D. Gjengaar equalised for Valerenga at 2-2 after 65 minutes, set up by H. Nielsen. Sarpsborg 08 FF went 3-2 up in the 69th minute: D. Karlsbakk.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 10-7, 8-5 on target. Corners finished 5-10.
What the result means
Valerenga have now scored in 6 consecutive matches. Sarpsborg 08 FF had not beaten Valerenga in any of the previous 4 meetings we have.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
