2' — Port Vale took the lead: 1-0. Onel Hernández scored it. 11' — Port Vale extended the lead: 2-0. George Byers scored from the penalty spot. 22' — Port Vale extended the lead: 3-0. Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel scored it. Half time: 3-0.
82' — Rochdale pulled one back: 3-1. Ian Henderson scored it. 86' — Port Vale extended the lead: 4-1. Keyrol Figueroa scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Rochdale pulled one back: 4-2. It came in the closing minutes. Port Vale won 4-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Port ValeDrawRochdale
Pre-match model estimate: Port Vale 60%, draw 23%, Rochdale 17%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Port Vale win in 60% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Rochdale win 17%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-0 (13%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.4 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 4-2 home win for Port Vale against Rochdale in the League Two. The half-time score was 3-0. 6,458 spectators were at Vale Park.
How the match unfolded
Port Vale took the lead on 2 minutes thanks to Onel Hernández. Port Vale extended their lead to 2-0 in the 11th minute: George Byers from the penalty spot. Port Vale extended their lead to 3-0 in the 22nd minute: Jordan Lawrence-Gabriel. Half-time: 3-0, Port Vale in front.
Rochdale pulled one back to make it 3-1 on 82 minutes thanks to Ian Henderson. Keyrol Figueroa made it 4-1 for Port Vale after 86 minutes. Rochdale pulled one back to make it 4-2 on 90 minutes.
Match statistics
On target it was 7-5, from 8 and 7 attempts respectively. Port Vale won 4 corners, Rochdale 4.
The bigger picture
Rochdale have now gone 6 matches without a win. It is Port Vale's first win against Rochdale since 2021.
Next fixtures
Port Vale's next match is at home against Accrington Stanley on 14 November. Rochdale host York City FC next, on 14 November in the League Two.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
League Two
