Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: AD Socorrense won 1-2.
Story
Olimpico EC Itabaianinha vs AD Socorrense: the story of the match
45' — AD Socorrense took the lead: 0-1. 45' — Olimpico EC Itabaianinha equalised: 1-1. Half time: 1-1.
90' — AD Socorrense went back in front: 1-2. It came in the closing minutes. AD Socorrense won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Olimpico EC ItabaianinhaDrawAD Socorrense
Pre-match model estimate: Olimpico EC Itabaianinha 71%, draw 17%, AD Socorrense 12%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Olimpico EC Itabaianinha win in 71% of the simulated matches, 17% end level and AD Socorrense win 12%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 2-0 (10%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Olimpico EC Itabaianinha – AD Socorrense match report
