This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): OFK Vrsac win in 22% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and TSC Backa Topola win 56%. Average goals 2.9; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 54%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
TSC Backa Topola took the lead on 15 minutes. L. Serdar equalised for OFK Vrsac at 1-1 after 17 minutes. It was OFK Vrsac 1-1 TSC Backa Topola at half-time.
D. Glavinic turned the game around for OFK Vrsac at 2-1 after 75 minutes. L. Lazin saw a straight red card in the 91st minute, leaving OFK Vrsac short-handed.
Match statistics
Corners finished 3-8.
The bigger picture
TSC Backa Topola's 10-match unbeaten run is over.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
