Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Naesby BK beat AS Aarhus 5-1 in 3. Division.
Venue: ALPI Arena Naesby.
Match details
Venue
ALPI Arena Naesby, Odense
Match decisions & VAR
No verified referee decision in this match.
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Naesby BK won 5-1.
Story
Naesby BK vs AS Aarhus: the story of the match
20' — Naesby BK took the lead: 1-0. 23' — Naesby BK extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0.
57' — Naesby BK extended the lead: 3-0. 90' — AS Aarhus pulled one back: 3-1. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Naesby BK extended the lead: 4-1. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — Naesby BK extended the lead: 5-1. It came in the closing minutes. Naesby BK won 5-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Naesby BKDrawAS Aarhus
Pre-match model estimate: Naesby BK 58%, draw 21%, AS Aarhus 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Naesby BK win in 58% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and AS Aarhus win 21%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 61%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Naesby BK thrashed AS Aarhus5-1 in the 3. Division. The half-time score was 2-0.
Key moments
Naesby BK took the lead on 20 minutes. Just 3 minutes later (23') Naesby BK extended their lead to 2-0. Half-time: 2-0, Naesby BK in front.
Naesby BK extended their lead to 3-0 on 57 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, AS Aarhus pulled one back to make it 3-1. Late on, in the 90th minute, Naesby BK extended their lead to 4-1. Naesby BK extended their lead to 5-1 on 90 minutes.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 12-6, 7-4 on target. Naesby BK won 5 corners, AS Aarhus 5.
The bigger picture
The result takes Naesby BK to 20 points. AS Aarhus move on to 16 points. Naesby BK end a run of 4 matches without a win. It is now 5 straight defeats for AS Aarhus.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
