Pressure minute by minute, from goals and corners.
About this match
Lorca Deportiva beat UD Poblense 2-0 in Segunda Federacion, Group V.
Match decisions & VAR
84'Red cardUD PoblenseDecision
Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: Lorca Deportiva won 2-0.
Story
Lorca Deportiva vs UD Poblense: the story of the match
45' — Lorca Deportiva took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
83' — Lorca Deportiva extended the lead: 2-0. 84' — UD Poblense had a player sent off. Lorca Deportiva won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Lorca DeportivaDrawUD Poblense
Pre-match model estimate: Lorca Deportiva 53%, draw 26%, UD Poblense 21%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Lorca Deportiva win in 53% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and UD Poblense win 21%. Average goals 2.4; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 5.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Segunda Federacion, Group V
