Heracles Almelo vs Roda JC Kerkrade: the story of the match
7' — Heracles Almelo took the lead: 1-0. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. 9' — Roda JC Kerkrade equalised: 1-1. Anthony van der Hurk scored from the penalty spot. 25' — Heracles Almelo went back in front: 2-1. Jean-Paul N'Djoli scored it. 45' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 3-1. Jean-Paul N'Djoli scored it. Half time: 3-1.
51' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 4-1. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. 67' — Heracles Almelo extended the lead: 5-1. Tristan Van Gilst scored it. Heracles Almelo won 5-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Heracles AlmeloDrawRoda JC Kerkrade
Pre-match model estimate: Heracles Almelo 67%, draw 19%, Roda JC Kerkrade 14%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Heracles Almelo win in 67% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Roda JC Kerkrade win 14%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 2-0 (11%); both teams score in 53%. About 11.4 corners on average. About 3.8 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Heracles Almelo took the lead on 7 minutes thanks to Tristan Van Gilst. Just 2 minutes later (9') Roda JC Kerkrade drew level at 1-1, Anthony van der Hurk from the penalty spot on target. Jean-Paul N'Djoli put Heracles Almelo 2-1 ahead after 25 minutes. Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 3-1 on 45 minutes thanks to Jean-Paul N'Djoli. It was Heracles Almelo 3-1 Roda JC Kerkrade at half-time.
Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 4-1 on 51 minutes thanks to Tristan Van Gilst. Heracles Almelo extended their lead to 5-1 in the 67th minute: Tristan Van Gilst.
What the numbers say
Heracles Almelo won 6 corners, Roda JC Kerkrade 2.
The bigger picture
Heracles Almelo stay 1st on 35 points. Roda JC Kerkrade drop from 4th to 5th on 25 points. Heracles Almelo ended Roda JC Kerkrade's unbeaten run of 5 matches. It is Heracles Almelo's first win against Roda JC Kerkrade since 2023.
Coming up
Heracles Almelo's next match is away to FC Dordrecht on 14 November. Roda JC Kerkrade host FC Volendam next, on 14 November in the Eerste Divisie.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eerste Divisie
