Harrogate Town AFC vs AFC Fylde: the story of the match
9' — Harrogate Town AFC took the lead: 1-0. Will Mcgowan scored it. 16' — AFC Fylde equalised: 1-1. Luca Thomas scored it. Half time: 1-1.
60' — AFC Fylde completed the turnaround: 1-2. Aaron Drewe scored it. 78' — AFC Fylde extended the lead: 1-3. Tom Whelan scored from the penalty spot. 82' — AFC Fylde extended the lead: 1-4. Millar Matthews-Lewis scored it. AFC Fylde won 1-4.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Harrogate Town AFCDrawAFC Fylde
Pre-match model estimate: Harrogate Town AFC 49%, draw 23%, AFC Fylde 28%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Harrogate Town AFC win in 49% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and AFC Fylde win 28%. Average goals 3.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 64%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Harrogate Town AFC let a lead slip and lost 4-1 to AFC Fylde at EnviroVent Stadium. The attendance at EnviroVent Stadium was 2,375.
How the match unfolded
Will Mcgowan opened the scoring for Harrogate Town AFC after 9 minutes. AFC Fylde drew level at 1-1 on 16 minutes thanks to Luca Thomas. It was Harrogate Town AFC 1-1 AFC Fylde at half-time.
AFC Fylde completed the turnaround at 2-1 on 60 minutes thanks to Aaron Drewe. AFC Fylde extended their lead to 3-1 in the 78th minute: Tom Whelan from the penalty spot. Millar Matthews-Lewis made it 4-1 for AFC Fylde after 82 minutes.
The statistics
On target it was 2-6, from 5 and 6 attempts respectively. Corners finished 8-9.
Coming up
Next up for Harrogate Town AFC: home to Altrincham FC on Saturday 14 November. AFC Fylde's next match is away to Eastleigh FC on 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
