16' — Dijon took the lead: 0-1. Júlio Tavares scored it. Half time: 0-1.
50' — Dijon extended the lead: 0-2. Brandon Nsimba Ndezi scored it. 83' — Grenoble Foot 38 pulled one back: 1-2. Ugo Bonnet scored it. 90' — Dijon extended the lead: 1-3. It came in the closing minutes. Dijon won 1-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Grenoble Foot 38 win in 30% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and Dijon win 44%. Average goals 2.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 4.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Grenoble Foot 38 went down 3-1 to Dijon in the League 2. The half-time score was 0-1.
How the match unfolded
Dijon took the lead on 16 minutes thanks to Júlio Tavares. Dijon led 1-0 at the break.
Dijon extended their lead to 2-0 on 50 minutes thanks to Brandon Nsimba Ndezi. Ugo Bonnet reduced the deficit for Grenoble Foot 38 to 1-2 after 83 minutes. Dijon extended their lead to 3-1 on 90 minutes.
The statistics
Grenoble Foot 38 had 17 shots (11 on target) to Dijon's 8 (5). Grenoble Foot 38 won 7 corners, Dijon 2.
The bigger picture
It is now 4 straight defeats for Grenoble Foot 38. Dijon have now scored in 10 consecutive matches. It is Dijon's first win against Grenoble Foot 38 since 2023.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
