One of the ScoreMondo model’s 20,000 simulations — an estimate, not a result.
Preparing the simulation…
FK Hebar PazardzhikKick-off0-0PFC Marek Dupnitsa
90 minutes play in about half a minute.
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FK Hebar Pazardzhik win in 59% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and PFC Marek Dupnitsa win 19%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-0 (11%); both teams score in 51%. About 9.2 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 18%.
Previous meetings and form
Head to head
1FK Hebar Pazardzhik1Draws2PFC Marek Dupnitsa
Goals: 4 - 5 · last 4 meetings
Second LeagueFK Hebar Pazardzhik1 - 1PFC Marek Dupnitsa
Second LeaguePFC Marek Dupnitsa2 - 0FK Hebar Pazardzhik
Second LeagueFK Hebar Pazardzhik3 - 0PFC Marek Dupnitsa
Second LeaguePFC Marek Dupnitsa2 - 0FK Hebar Pazardzhik
Goals scored per match: 1.4Goals conceded per match: 1.8
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsno
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: FK Hebar Pazardzhik won 3-1.
Story
FK Hebar Pazardzhik vs PFC Marek Dupnitsa: the story of the match
22' — FK Hebar Pazardzhik took the lead: 1-0. Half time: 1-0.
55' — FK Hebar Pazardzhik extended the lead: 2-0. 77' — FK Hebar Pazardzhik extended the lead: 3-0. 90' — PFC Marek Dupnitsa pulled one back: 3-1. It came in the closing minutes. FK Hebar Pazardzhik won 3-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FK Hebar PazardzhikDrawPFC Marek Dupnitsa
Pre-match model estimate: FK Hebar Pazardzhik 59%, draw 22%, PFC Marek Dupnitsa 19%.
A 3-1 home win for FK Hebar Pazardzhik against PFC Marek Dupnitsa in the Second League. The half-time score was 1-0. Sunday 8 November, Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Pazardzhik): FK Hebar Pazardzhik against PFC Marek Dupnitsa on matchday 15, kick-off 14:30.
How the match unfolded
FK Hebar Pazardzhik took the lead on 22 minutes. Half-time: 1-0, FK Hebar Pazardzhik in front.
FK Hebar Pazardzhik extended their lead to 2-0 on 55 minutes. FK Hebar Pazardzhik extended their lead to 3-0 on 77 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, PFC Marek Dupnitsa pulled one back to make it 3-1.
Match statistics
FK Hebar Pazardzhik won 3 corners, PFC Marek Dupnitsa 4. The referee showed 4 yellow cards, 3 to FK Hebar Pazardzhik and 1 to PFC Marek Dupnitsa. PFC Marek Dupnitsa produced 194 dangerous attacks to FK Hebar Pazardzhik's 79. Fouls: 14 by FK Hebar Pazardzhik, 11 by PFC Marek Dupnitsa; offsides 0-4.
How they came into it
The table had FK Hebar Pazardzhik 8th (20 points) and PFC Marek Dupnitsa 14th (18 points) going into the game. Before kick-off, FK Hebar Pazardzhik's last 5 matches had brought 4 wins and 1 defeat. FK Hebar Pazardzhik lost 3-0 away to FC Yantra 2019 Gabrovo in their last match. PFC Marek Dupnitsa came into the match with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from their last 5 matches — 3 without a win. CSKA Sofia II beat PFC Marek Dupnitsa 3-1 last time out. FK Hebar Pazardzhik and PFC Marek Dupnitsa have met 4 times in our records: 1 win for FK Hebar Pazardzhik, 2 for PFC Marek Dupnitsa and 1 draw. When they last met, on 15 May 2026, it ended 1-1. There have been 9 goals in the 4 meetings, 2.3 a game.
What it means
The result lifts FK Hebar Pazardzhik to 6th with 23 points, up from 8th. PFC Marek Dupnitsa stay 14th on 18 points. PFC Marek Dupnitsa have now gone 4 matches without a win. It is FK Hebar Pazardzhik's first win against PFC Marek Dupnitsa since 2022.
Second League
