FCV Dender EH vs Jong KRC Genk: the story of the match
22' — Jong KRC Genk took the lead: 0-1. A. De Wannemacker scored from the penalty spot. Half time: 0-1.
55' — FCV Dender EH equalised: 1-1. A. Nhaili scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FCV Dender EHDrawJong KRC Genk
Pre-match model estimate: FCV Dender EH 71%, draw 16%, Jong KRC Genk 13%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FCV Dender EH win in 71% of the simulated matches, 16% end level and Jong KRC Genk win 13%. Average goals 3.5; the most likely score is 2-1 (10%); both teams score in 58%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Jong KRC Genk took the lead on 22 minutes thanks to A. De Wannemacker from the penalty spot. Jong KRC Genk led 1-0 at the break.
FCV Dender EH drew level at 1-1 on 55 minutes thanks to A. Nhaili, set up by G. Vandeplas.
What the numbers say
The shot count read 9-10, 3-3 on target. FCV Dender EH won 7 corners, Jong KRC Genk 6. FCV Dender EH produced 148 dangerous attacks to Jong KRC Genk's 114.
The bigger picture
Jong KRC Genk have now gone 5 matches without a win. Across 7 meetings in our records: 3 wins for FCV Dender EH, 3 wins for Jong KRC Genk and 1 draw.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Challenger Pro League
