FC Gomel vs Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: the story of the match
9' — FC Gomel took the lead: 1-0. K. Danilin scored it. 42' — FC Gomel extended the lead: 2-0. T. Simanenka scored it. Half time: 2-0.
FC Gomel won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC GomelDrawArsenal Dzerzhinsk
Pre-match model estimate: FC Gomel 60%, draw 24%, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 16%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Gomel win in 60% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win 16%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-0 (14%); both teams score in 45%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.6 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FC Gomel took the lead on 9 minutes thanks to K. Danilin, set up by D. Shaykhtdinov. FC Gomel extended their lead to 2-0 on 42 minutes thanks to T. Simanenka, set up by K. Danilin. FC Gomel led 2-0 at the break.
The statistics
FC Gomel won 2 corners, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 6.
What it means
FC Gomel stay 6th on 43 points. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk remain 12th, now with 27 points. FC Gomel end a run of 4 matches without a win. It is FC Gomel's first win against Arsenal Dzerzhinsk since 2022.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
