FC Arouca vs CD Nacional Madeira: the story of the match
Half time: 0-0.
64' — FC Arouca took the lead: 1-0. Tiago Esgaio scored it. FC Arouca won 1-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
FC AroucaDrawCD Nacional Madeira
Pre-match model estimate: FC Arouca 71%, draw 18%, CD Nacional Madeira 11%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): FC Arouca win in 71% of the simulated matches, 18% end level and CD Nacional Madeira win 11%. Average goals 3.1; the most likely score is 2-0 (12%); both teams score in 50%. About 9.5 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
FC Arouca had 3 shots (0 on target) to CD Nacional Madeira's 5 (1). FC Arouca won 8 corners, CD Nacional Madeira 2. FC Arouca produced 62 dangerous attacks to CD Nacional Madeira's 42.
What it means
FC Arouca have now won 4 in a row.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
