33' — De Graafschap took the lead: 1-0. Bjorn Van Zijl scored it. Half time: 1-0.
83' — Waalwijk equalised: 1-1. Ryan Fage scored it. The match ended 1-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
De GraafschapDrawWaalwijk
Pre-match model estimate: De Graafschap 37%, draw 22%, Waalwijk 41%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): De Graafschap win in 37% of the simulated matches, 22% end level and Waalwijk win 41%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 1-1 (9%); both teams score in 69%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
De Graafschap took the lead on 33 minutes thanks to Bjorn Van Zijl. De Graafschap led 1-0 at the break.
Waalwijk drew level at 1-1 on 83 minutes thanks to Ryan Fage.
Match statistics
On target it was 2-5, from 3 and 10 attempts respectively. De Graafschap won 5 corners, Waalwijk 8. 5 saves came from the De Graafschap goalkeeper. Waalwijk produced 215 dangerous attacks to De Graafschap's 134.
What the result means
De Graafschap have now scored in 7 consecutive matches. Waalwijk have now gone 5 matches without a win. Across 11 meetings in our records: 4 wins for De Graafschap, 3 wins for Waalwijk and 4 draws.
What’s next
De Graafschap host TOP Oss next, on 14 November in the Eerste Divisie. Next up for Waalwijk: home to FC Den Bosch on Saturday 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Eerste Divisie
