CD Numancia vs Real Oviedo: the story of the match
43' — CD Numancia took the lead: 1-0. Aitor Aranzabe scored it. Half time: 1-0.
57' — CD Numancia extended the lead: 2-0. Iker León Gutiérrez scored it. 74' — Real Oviedo pulled one back: 2-1. Mikel Goti scored it. 76' — Real Oviedo equalised: 2-2. Alexandru Mihai Isfan scored it. 87' — CD Numancia went back in front: 3-2. Jonatan González Crespo scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 89' — Real Oviedo equalised: 3-3. Mikel Goti scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 3-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD NumanciaDrawReal Oviedo
Pre-match model estimate: CD Numancia 22%, draw 29%, Real Oviedo 49%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Numancia win in 22% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Real Oviedo win 49%. Average goals 2.1; the most likely score is 0-1 (16%); both teams score in 39%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
It finished 3-3 between CD Numancia and Real Oviedo at Los Pajaritos. Real Oviedo owed a lot to Mikel Goti, who struck twice. It was 1-0 at half-time.
The story of the match
Aitor Aranzabe opened the scoring for CD Numancia after 43 minutes. It was CD Numancia 1-0 Real Oviedo at half-time.
CD Numancia extended their lead to 2-0 on 57 minutes thanks to Iker León Gutiérrez. Real Oviedo pulled one back to make it 2-1 on 74 minutes thanks to Mikel Goti. Real Oviedo drew level at 2-2 on 76 minutes thanks to Alexandru Mihai Isfan. CD Numancia went 3-2 up in the 87th minute: Jonatan González Crespo. Real Oviedo drew level at 3-3 on 89 minutes thanks to Mikel Goti.
Match statistics
On target it was 4-5, from 4 and 14 attempts respectively. Corners finished 3-13. CD Numancia's goalkeeper made 5 saves. Dangerous attacks: 262 for Real Oviedo, 106 for CD Numancia.
What it means
The wait for a win goes on for CD Numancia: 5 matches now. Real Oviedo are now unbeaten in 4 matches. Across 11 meetings in our records: 3 wins for CD Numancia, 4 wins for Real Oviedo and 4 draws.
Next fixtures
Next up for Real Oviedo: home to Girona FC on Saturday 14 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Copa del Rey
