28' — CD Motagua took the lead: 1-0. D. Melendez scored it. 39' — CD Motagua extended the lead: 2-0. D. Melendez scored it. Half time: 2-0.
CD Motagua won 2-0.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD MotaguaDrawCD Marathon
Pre-match model estimate: CD Motagua 47%, draw 26%, CD Marathon 27%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD Motagua win in 47% of the simulated matches, 26% end level and CD Marathon win 27%. Average goals 2.5; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 50%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD Motagua had a goal ruled out in the 12th minute. CD Motagua took the lead in the 28th minute: D. Melendez. CD Motagua extended their lead to 2-0 on 39 minutes thanks to D. Melendez. Half-time: 2-0, CD Motagua in front.
The statistics
The shot count read 9-6, 8-4 on target. CD Motagua won 6 corners, CD Marathon 13.
The bigger picture
CD Motagua ended CD Marathon's unbeaten run of 5 matches. It is CD Motagua's first win over CD Marathon in the last 9 meetings on record.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Liga Nacional
