CD La Serena vs Deportes Concepcion: the story of the match
15' — CD La Serena took the lead: 1-0. Matías Marín scored it. 21' — Deportes Concepcion equalised: 1-1. Jorge Henríquez scored it. 37' — CD La Serena went back in front: 2-1. Matías Marín scored it. 41' — Yonatan Rodríguez of Deportes Concepcion was sent off. Half time: 2-1.
84' — CD La Serena extended the lead: 3-1. Jeisson Vargas scored from the penalty spot. CD La Serena won 3-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CD La SerenaDrawDeportes Concepcion
Pre-match model estimate: CD La Serena 41%, draw 25%, Deportes Concepcion 34%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CD La Serena win in 41% of the simulated matches, 25% end level and Deportes Concepcion win 34%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 55%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CD La Serena took the lead on 15 minutes thanks to Matías Marín. Jorge Henríquez equalised for Deportes Concepcion at 1-1 after 21 minutes. CD La Serena went 2-1 up on 37 minutes thanks to Matías Marín, set up by Rafael Delgado. Deportes Concepcion were a man down from the 41st minute, when Yonatan Rodríguez was sent off for a second yellow card. Half-time: 2-1, CD La Serena in front.
CD La Serena extended their lead to 3-1 in the 84th minute: Jeisson Vargas from the penalty spot.
Match statistics
On target it was 10-1, from 18 and 2 attempts respectively. Corners finished 11-3. Dangerous attacks: 62 for CD La Serena, 40 for Deportes Concepcion.
The bigger picture
The wait for a win goes on for Deportes Concepcion: 4 matches now. CD La Serena beat Deportes Concepcion for the first time since 2015.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Liga de Primera
