Bournemouth vs Leeds United: the story of the match
31' — Bournemouth took the lead: 1-0. Evanilson scored it. Half time: 1-0.
90' — Bournemouth extended the lead: 2-0. It came in the closing minutes. Bournemouth won 2-0. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
BournemouthDrawLeeds United
Pre-match model estimate: Bournemouth 49%, draw 24%, Leeds United 27%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Bournemouth win in 49% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Leeds United win 27%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-1 (11%); both teams score in 55%. About 9.4 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 20%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Bournemouth beat Leeds United2-0 without conceding at Vitality Stadium. It was 1-0 at half-time. The attendance at Vitality Stadium was 12,041.
Key moments
The officials disallowed a Leeds United goal on 15 minutes. Bournemouth took the lead in the 31st minute: Evanilson, set up by Justin Kluivert. It was Bournemouth 1-0 Leeds United at half-time.
Late on, in the 90th minute, Bournemouth extended their lead to 2-0.
What the numbers say
Bournemouth had 9 shots (6 on target) to Leeds United's 3 (1). Corners finished 4-4.
What the result means
That is 6 straight wins for Bournemouth. The wait for a win goes on for Leeds United: 5 matches now. Bournemouth beat Leeds United for the first time since 2023.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
