19' — Juventus took the lead: 0-1. Teun Koopmeiners scored it. 37' — Juventus extended the lead: 0-2. Randal Kolo Muani scored it. Half time: 0-2.
88' — AZ Alkmaar pulled one back: 1-2. Mexx Meerdink scored it. It came in the closing minutes. Juventus won 1-2. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AZ AlkmaarDrawJuventus
Pre-match model estimate: AZ Alkmaar 36%, draw 29%, Juventus 35%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AZ Alkmaar win in 36% of the simulated matches, 29% end level and Juventus win 35%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 46%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 16%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Juventus got the better of AZ Alkmaar, winning 2-1 at AFAS Stadion. It was 0-2 at half-time. The attendance at AFAS Stadion was 18,954.
Key moments
Juventus took the lead in the 19th minute: Teun Koopmeiners, set up by Randal Kolo Muani. Juventus extended their lead to 2-0 on 37 minutes thanks to Randal Kolo Muani, set up by Nick Woltemade. Half-time: 0-2, Juventus in front.
Late on, in the 88th minute, AZ Alkmaar pulled one back to make it 1-2 through Mexx Meerdink, set up by Elijah Dijkstra. VAR disallowed a AZ Alkmaar goal on 89 minutes.
The statistics
The shot count read 11-5, 4-2 on target. Corners finished 4-2. Dangerous attacks: 71 for AZ Alkmaar, 44 for Juventus.
What the result means
AZ Alkmaar slip to 14th (6 points), having started the day 10th. Juventus climb from 7th to 5th on 10 points.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
