Verified decisions only: VAR reviews, disallowed goals, penalties and red cards.
AC Spezia
A. Micai
A. Mateju
M. Sapola
R. Sganzerla
S. Capolupo
K. Bright
G. Capomaggio
K. Cannavo
K. Jimenez
A. Cardinali
D. Cazzadori
Atalanta U23
A. Anelli
D. Ghislandi
A. Guerini
I. Isoa
F. Simonetto
F. Steffanoni
D. K. Pounga
A. Manzoni
S. Diao
G. Bertolini
G. Misitano
Match analysis
Finished
Scoreyes
Statisticsyes
Line-upsyes
Pitch animationno
Pressure datano
Model estimateyes
Result verified.
Full time: AC Spezia won 2-1.
Story
AC Spezia vs Atalanta U23: the story of the match
5' — AC Spezia took the lead: 1-0. K. Bright scored it. Half time: 1-0.
84' — AC Spezia extended the lead: 2-0. M. Durmush scored it. 90' — Atalanta U23 pulled one back: 2-1. E. Zanaboni scored it. It came in the closing minutes. AC Spezia won 2-1. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
AC SpeziaDrawAtalanta U23
Pre-match model estimate: AC Spezia 65%, draw 21%, Atalanta U23 14%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): AC Spezia win in 65% of the simulated matches, 21% end level and Atalanta U23 win 14%. Average goals 2.8; the most likely score is 1-0 (12%); both teams score in 47%. About 9.3 corners on average. About 3.9 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
A 2-1 home win for AC Spezia against Atalanta U23 in Serie C. The half-time score was 1-0.
The story of the match
AC Spezia took the lead on 5 minutes thanks to K. Bright, set up by A. Cardinali. AC Spezia led 1-0 at the break.
M. Durmush made it 2-0 for AC Spezia after 84 minutes. Late on, in the 90th minute, Atalanta U23 pulled one back to make it 2-1 through E. Zanaboni, set up by A. Bonanomi.
The statistics
The shot count read 7-9, 3-5 on target. AC Spezia won 6 corners, Atalanta U23 4. 5 saves came from the AC Spezia goalkeeper. AC Spezia produced 178 dangerous attacks to Atalanta U23's 123.
What the result means
AC Spezia extend their unbeaten run to 11 matches. Atalanta U23 have now scored in 4 consecutive matches.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
