FootballSeason 26/27TFF 1. League season simulation
Model estimate Bursaspor — 85% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 32 | 83.7 | 85% |
| Kayserispor | 30 | 74.4 | 14% |
| Igdir FK | 28 | 66.4 | 1% |
| Ankara Keciorengucu | 23 | 63.4 | <1% |
| Batman Petrolspor | 24 | 58.6 | <1% |
| Mardin 1969 Spor | 25 | 58.5 | <1% |
| BB Bodrumspor | 21 | 56.8 | <1% |
| Esenler Erokspor | 18 | 56.4 | <1% |
| Fatih Karagumruk SK | 19 | 56.2 | <1% |
| Antalyaspor | 20 | 52.8 | 0% |
| Umraniyespor | 17 | 50.2 | <1% |
| Bandirmaspor 1965 | 14 | 47.6 | 0% |
| Sariyer | 17 | 46.3 | 0% |
| Muglaspor | 18 | 45.6 | 0% |
| Manisa FK | 13 | 42.4 | 0% |
| Sivasspor | 13 | 40.3 | 0% |
| Pendikspor | 14 | 40.4 | 0% |
| Vanspor FK | 18 | 40 | 0% |
| Istanbulspor AS | 8 | 31.7 | 0% |
| Boluspor | 4 | 22.9 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bursaspor | 85 | 14 | 1 | |||||||||||||||||
| Kayserispor | 14 | 61 | 16 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||||
| Igdir FK | 1 | 13 | 33 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Ankara Keciorengucu | 7 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Batman Petrolspor | 1 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Mardin 1969 Spor | 1 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| BB Bodrumspor | 4 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||
| Esenler Erokspor | 4 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Fatih Karagumruk SK | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Antalyaspor | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Umraniyespor | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Bandirmaspor 1965 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Sariyer | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
| Muglaspor | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| Manisa FK | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 5 | ||||||||
| Sivasspor | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 9 | ||||||||||
| Pendikspor | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 8 | ||||||||||
| Vanspor FK | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 20 | 9 | ||||||||||
| Istanbulspor AS | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 14 | |||||||||||||
| Boluspor | 2 | 14 | 84 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 241 remaining matches · data version 1z4jr6. 241 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.