Saudi ArabiaFootballSeason 26/27Saudi Professional League season simulation
Model estimate Al Hilal Riyadh — 69% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal Riyadh | 30 | 81.8 | 69% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Qadisiyah FC | 28 | 75.5 | 16% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Nassr Riyadh | 28 | 75.1 | 15% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Ittihad Jeddah | 24 | 65.5 | 1% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Ahli Jeddah | 21 | 63.3 | <1% | 100% | 0% |
| Neom SC | 22 | 57.4 | <1% | 96% | 0% |
| Al Ettifaq Dammam | 19 | 48.4 | 0% | 60% | <1% |
| Al Shabab FC Riyadh | 14 | 42.8 | 0% | 21% | 1% |
| Al Draih | 15 | 40.9 | 0% | 11% | 2% |
| Al Kholood | 12 | 39.4 | 0% | 7% | 5% |
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 15 | 36.4 | 0% | 2% | 11% |
| Al Feiha | 11 | 33.2 | 0% | 1% | 24% |
| Al Riyadh SC | 12 | 33.1 | 0% | 1% | 29% |
| Al Faisaly Harmah | 10 | 32.7 | 0% | 1% | 29% |
| Al Taawon Buraidah | 5 | 32.5 | 0% | 1% | 30% |
| Al Hazem | 10 | 31.6 | 0% | <1% | 36% |
| Al Fateh SC | 6 | 30.3 | 0% | <1% | 47% |
| Abha | 3 | 23.5 | 0% | <1% | 86% |
TitleChampions LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal Riyadh | 69 | 21 | 8 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Al Qadisiyah FC | 16 | 39 | 34 | 9 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Al Nassr Riyadh | 15 | 34 | 37 | 11 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| Al Ittihad Jeddah | 4 | 12 | 41 | 30 | 12 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Al Ahli Jeddah | 2 | 8 | 30 | 39 | 18 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Neom SC | 1 | 8 | 23 | 52 | 12 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Al Ettifaq Dammam | 2 | 11 | 45 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Al Shabab FC Riyadh | 3 | 17 | 25 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Al Draih | 1 | 9 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| Al Kholood | 6 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||
| Al Khaleej Saihat | 2 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| Al Feiha | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 4 | |||||||
| Al Riyadh SC | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 5 | |||||||
| Al Faisaly Harmah | 2 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 5 | |||||||
| Al Taawon Buraidah | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 6 | |||||||
| Al Hazem | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 7 | |||||||
| Al Fateh SC | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 18 | 12 | |||||||
| Abha | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 59 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 202 remaining matches · data version 5yhpnx. 202 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.