FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Al Kuwait SC — 93% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kuwait SC | 19 | 55.2 | 93% |
| Al Qadsia SC | 15 | 46.5 | 7% |
| Al Arabi SC Kuwait | 12 | 39.8 | <1% |
| Kazma SC | 14 | 33.5 | <1% |
| Al Salmiyah | 13 | 33 | <1% |
| Al Nasr Kuwait | 13 | 32.8 | <1% |
| Al Fahaheel | 10 | 27.8 | 0% |
| Al Jahra | 7 | 23 | 0% |
| Al Tadamon SC | 6 | 21 | 0% |
| Al Shabab Ahmadi | 8 | 19.6 | 0% |
| Sulaibikhat SC | 5 | 18.2 | 0% |
| Al Sahel SC Abu Halifa | 4 | 16 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Kuwait SC | 93 | 7 | ||||||||||
| Al Qadsia SC | 7 | 74 | 15 | 3 | ||||||||
| Al Arabi SC Kuwait | 15 | 53 | 19 | 8 | 3 | |||||||
| Kazma SC | 1 | 11 | 26 | 24 | 19 | 12 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Al Salmiyah | 1 | 10 | 23 | 26 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| Al Nasr Kuwait | 9 | 21 | 25 | 24 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| Al Fahaheel | 1 | 6 | 12 | 21 | 30 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| Al Jahra | 3 | 6 | 15 | 27 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 4 | ||||
| Al Tadamon SC | 3 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 10 | |||||
| Al Shabab Ahmadi | 1 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 24 | 22 | 16 | |||||
| Sulaibikhat SC | 3 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 23 | ||||||
| Al Sahel SC Abu Halifa | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 47 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 87 remaining matches · data version 13wa4n. 87 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.