FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Kitchee SC — 46% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchee SC | 16 | 42.8 | 46% |
| North District FC | 19 | 40.7 | 26% |
| Lee Man Warriors FC | 18 | 40.7 | 24% |
| Tai Po FC | 13 | 35 | 4% |
| Southern District RSA | 9 | 28.5 | <1% |
| Eastern SC | 4 | 24.5 | <1% |
| Eastern District SA | 7 | 22.1 | 0% |
| Kowloon City | 5 | 21.1 | 0% |
| Hong Kong FC | 7 | 18.7 | 0% |
| Hong Kong Rangers | 5 | 18 | 0% |
| Shatin SA | 5 | 15.9 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitchee SC | 46 | 29 | 17 | 7 | |||||||
| North District FC | 26 | 31 | 28 | 12 | 2 | ||||||
| Lee Man Warriors FC | 24 | 29 | 30 | 15 | 3 | ||||||
| Tai Po FC | 4 | 10 | 21 | 46 | 15 | 3 | |||||
| Southern District RSA | 1 | 3 | 13 | 41 | 22 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| Eastern SC | 4 | 20 | 29 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| Eastern District SA | 1 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 6 | |||
| Kowloon City | 7 | 14 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 8 | ||||
| Hong Kong FC | 2 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 20 | ||||
| Hong Kong Rangers | 1 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 23 | 24 | 21 | ||||
| Shatin SA | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 43 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 72 remaining matches · data version 1it325. 72 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.