FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Pyramids FC — 59% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids FC | 24 | 84 | 59% | 100% | 0% |
| Al Ahli Cairo | 20 | 81.3 | 36% | 100% | <1% |
| Ceramica Cleopatra FC | 18 | 71.8 | 4% | 99% | 1% |
| Zamalek SC | 19 | 64.5 | <1% | 87% | 13% |
| Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 11 | 57.8 | <1% | 58% | 42% |
| ZED FC | 11 | 55.9 | <1% | 45% | 55% |
| Wadi Degla FC | 7 | 53.2 | 0% | 30% | 70% |
| Al Masry | 9 | 50.6 | 0% | 18% | 82% |
| Modern Sport FC | 13 | 50.1 | 0% | 15% | 85% |
| Al Ittihad Alexandria | 14 | 49.5 | 0% | 13% | 87% |
| National Bank FC | 11 | 47.8 | 0% | 9% | 91% |
| Petrojet FC | 9 | 47.8 | 0% | 10% | 90% |
| El Qanah FC | 8 | 47.1 | <1% | 8% | 92% |
| Smouha SC | 11 | 45.5 | 0% | 4% | 96% |
| ENPPI SC | 7 | 42.8 | 0% | 2% | 98% |
| El Gouna FC | 3 | 38.7 | 0% | 1% | 99% |
| Ghazl El Mahallah CK | 7 | 38 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
| Talaea El Gaish SC | 8 | 37.7 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
| Abu Qir Semad FC | 4 | 33.6 | 0% | <1% | 100% |
| Asyut Petroleum | 6 | 31.5 | 0% | 0% | 100% |
TitlePromotionRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids FC | 59 | 33 | 7 | |||||||||||||||||
| Al Ahli Cairo | 36 | 47 | 14 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||
| Ceramica Cleopatra FC | 4 | 16 | 52 | 18 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
| Zamalek SC | 3 | 18 | 38 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Al Mokawloon Al Arab | 4 | 15 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| ZED FC | 2 | 10 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||
| Wadi Degla FC | 1 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Al Masry | 3 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||||
| Modern Sport FC | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Al Ittihad Alexandria | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| National Bank FC | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Petrojet FC | 1 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| El Qanah FC | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Smouha SC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||
| ENPPI SC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||||
| El Gouna FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 8 | |||||||
| Ghazl El Mahallah CK | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 10 | ||||||||
| Talaea El Gaish SC | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 10 | ||||||||
| Abu Qir Semad FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 24 | 27 | |||||||||||
| Asyut Petroleum | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 24 | 40 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 300 remaining matches · data version 1ely1j. 300 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.