FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate HSK Zrinjski Mostar — 83% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSK Zrinjski Mostar | 34 | 44.8 | 83% | 17% | 0% |
| FK Borac Banja Luka | 31 | 41.1 | 17% | 83% | 0% |
| FK Sarajevo | 20 | 27.8 | 0% | 87% | 0% |
| NK Siroki Brijeg | 17 | 21.8 | 0% | 6% | 1% |
| FK BSK Banja Luka | 16 | 21.7 | 0% | 5% | 3% |
| FK Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 13 | 20.1 | 0% | 1% | 13% |
| FK Radnik Bijeljina | 11 | 18.1 | 0% | <1% | 30% |
| FK Velez Mostar | 12 | 18.4 | 0% | 1% | 30% |
| NK Celik Zenica | 11 | 17.7 | 0% | 1% | 31% |
| FK Sloga Doboj | 9 | 13.3 | 0% | 0% | 92% |
TitleConference LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSK Zrinjski Mostar | 83 | 17 | ||||||||
| FK Borac Banja Luka | 17 | 83 | ||||||||
| FK Sarajevo | 87 | 10 | 2 | |||||||
| NK Siroki Brijeg | 6 | 28 | 26 | 20 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| FK BSK Banja Luka | 5 | 32 | 23 | 18 | 13 | 7 | 3 | |||
| FK Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 1 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 2 | ||
| FK Radnik Bijeljina | 7 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 8 | |||
| FK Velez Mostar | 5 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 25 | 5 | |||
| NK Celik Zenica | 5 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 23 | 23 | 8 | |||
| FK Sloga Doboj | 2 | 6 | 15 | 76 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 26 remaining matches · data version 1hyyhw. 26 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.