FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Khalidiya — 47% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Khalidiya | 15 | 43.8 | 47% |
| Al-Riffa SC | 15 | 42.1 | 32% |
| Al Muharraq SC | 11 | 39.9 | 17% |
| Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 14 | 35.7 | 3% |
| Al Ahli Manama | 9 | 29.3 | <1% |
| East Riffa SCC | 8 | 28.1 | <1% |
| Al Hidd SCC | 7 | 25 | <1% |
| Aali | 8 | 25.2 | <1% |
| Sitra Club | 8 | 24.3 | 0% |
| Al Najma Manama | 8 | 23.8 | 0% |
| Manama Club | 6 | 21.2 | 0% |
| Malkiya Club | 2 | 16.8 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalidiya | 47 | 30 | 15 | 6 | 1 | |||||||
| Al-Riffa SC | 32 | 33 | 22 | 10 | 3 | |||||||
| Al Muharraq SC | 17 | 26 | 33 | 17 | 5 | 1 | ||||||
| Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 3 | 9 | 21 | 37 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| Al Ahli Manama | 4 | 12 | 26 | 19 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| East Riffa SCC | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Al Hidd SCC | 3 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 3 | |||
| Aali | 3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 3 | |||
| Sitra Club | 2 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 6 | |||
| Al Najma Manama | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 8 | |||
| Manama Club | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 25 | 19 | ||||
| Malkiya Club | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 59 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 90 remaining matches · data version 4tad59. 90 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.