FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate FC Noah — 72% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Noah | 34 | 53.7 | 72% | 28% | 0% |
| FC Pyunik | 31 | 49.8 | 21% | 77% | 0% |
| FC Ararat-Armenia | 29 | 47.3 | 7% | 82% | 0% |
| FC Alashkert | 25 | 40.3 | <1% | 14% | 0% |
| FC Urartu | 16 | 32.1 | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| Sardarapat FC | 20 | 30.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| FC Shirak | 14 | 26.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| FC Syunik | 11 | 20.9 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| BKMA Yerevan | 11 | 20.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% |
| FC Ararat Yerevan | 11 | 19.3 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| FC Van Charencavan | 11 | 19.4 | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Gandzasar FA | 3 | 8.4 | 0% | 0% | 97% |
TitleConference LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Noah | 72 | 22 | 6 | |||||||||
| FC Pyunik | 21 | 51 | 26 | 2 | ||||||||
| FC Ararat-Armenia | 7 | 26 | 56 | 11 | ||||||||
| FC Alashkert | 2 | 12 | 77 | 7 | 1 | |||||||
| FC Urartu | 6 | 56 | 26 | 9 | 2 | |||||||
| Sardarapat FC | 2 | 28 | 46 | 20 | 4 | |||||||
| FC Shirak | 8 | 22 | 46 | 16 | 6 | 2 | ||||||
| FC Syunik | 2 | 10 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 16 | ||||||
| BKMA Yerevan | 2 | 7 | 25 | 26 | 22 | 17 | ||||||
| FC Ararat Yerevan | 4 | 15 | 22 | 28 | 29 | |||||||
| FC Van Charencavan | 4 | 14 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 1 | ||||||
| Gandzasar FA | 2 | 97 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 55 remaining matches · data version xvwuuj. 55 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.