FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Wolaita Dicha — 35% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolaita Dicha | 8 | 56.6 | 35% |
| Negelle Arsi | 11 | 53.4 | 17% |
| Defence Force SC | 10 | 52.6 | 14% |
| Bahir Dar Kenema FC | 7 | 51.7 | 12% |
| Ethio Electric SC | 7 | 48.2 | 5% |
| Ethiopian Insurance FC | 7 | 47.9 | 5% |
| Saint George SC | 6 | 45.7 | 2% |
| Adama City FC | 6 | 44.7 | 1% |
| Sheger Ketema | 5 | 44.7 | 2% |
| Hadiya Hossana FC | 4 | 44.5 | 1% |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank SA | 8 | 44.6 | 1% |
| Welwalo Adigrat University FC | 1 | 44 | 1% |
| Ethiopia Bunna SC | 4 | 41.8 | 1% |
| Fasil Kenema FC | 3 | 41.5 | 1% |
| Halaba Ketema FC | 8 | 40.9 | <1% |
| Sidama Bunna SC | 1 | 40.2 | <1% |
| Hawassa City | 5 | 38.7 | <1% |
| Gamo Chencha | 1 | 30.5 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolaita Dicha | 35 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Negelle Arsi | 17 | 16 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Defence Force SC | 14 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| Bahir Dar Kenema FC | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| Ethio Electric SC | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Ethiopian Insurance FC | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Saint George SC | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| Adama City FC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Sheger Ketema | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Hadiya Hossana FC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 |
| Ethiopia Nigd Bank SA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| Welwalo Adigrat University FC | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Ethiopia Bunna SC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |
| Fasil Kenema FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 5 | |
| Halaba Ketema FC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 6 | ||
| Sidama Bunna SC | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 7 | ||
| Hawassa City | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 10 | |||
| Gamo Chencha | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 56 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 267 remaining matches · data version vz7zhg. 267 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.