FootballSeason 26/27Premier League season simulation
Model estimate Kaohsiung Attackers — 65% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kaohsiung Attackers | 11 | 26.4 | 65% |
| AC Taipei | 8 | 21.2 | 11% |
| Hang Yuen FC | 6 | 21 | 10% |
| Tainan City | 5 | 20.7 | 11% |
| Taiwan Leopard Cat | 8 | 17.5 | 1% |
| Taipower Company FC | 7 | 17.5 | 2% |
| Taichung Futuro FC | 7 | 16.4 | 1% |
| Taichung Rock FC | 0 | 8.4 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaohsiung Attackers | 65 | 19 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| AC Taipei | 11 | 23 | 22 | 18 | 13 | 9 | 5 | |
| Hang Yuen FC | 10 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6 | |
| Tainan City | 11 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 13 | 10 | 7 | |
| Taiwan Leopard Cat | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 3 |
| Taipower Company FC | 2 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 3 |
| Taichung Futuro FC | 3 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 25 | 32 | 4 | |
| Taichung Rock FC | 3 | 7 | 88 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 36 remaining matches · data version if9pt3. 36 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.