PhilippinesFootballSeason 26/27PFL season simulation
Model estimate Manila Digger FC — 99% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manila Digger FC | 18 | 48.8 | 99% |
| Davao Aguilas FC | 13 | 34.9 | 1% |
| Kaya FC | 10 | 34.7 | <1% |
| DH Cebu | 6 | 33.9 | <1% |
| Maharlika Taguig FC | 14 | 27.9 | 0% |
| Stallion Laguna FC | 10 | 26.8 | 0% |
| Azkals Development Team | 7 | 18 | 0% |
| Mendiola FC 1991 | 8 | 17.2 | 0% |
| Tuloy FC | 3 | 10.4 | 0% |
| Philippine Army FC | 0 | 3.4 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manila Digger FC | 99 | 1 | ||||||||
| Davao Aguilas FC | 37 | 30 | 22 | 7 | 3 | |||||
| Kaya FC | 32 | 31 | 24 | 9 | 3 | |||||
| DH Cebu | 27 | 30 | 27 | 11 | 4 | |||||
| Maharlika Taguig FC | 1 | 5 | 15 | 40 | 36 | 3 | ||||
| Stallion Laguna FC | 4 | 12 | 31 | 46 | 5 | |||||
| Azkals Development Team | 5 | 51 | 37 | 6 | ||||||
| Mendiola FC 1991 | 3 | 38 | 52 | 7 | ||||||
| Tuloy FC | 3 | 10 | 82 | 5 | ||||||
| Philippine Army FC | 5 | 95 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 59 remaining matches · data version 17p2dj. 56 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.