FootballSeason 26/27National Division season simulation
Model estimate UNA Strassen — 51% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNA Strassen | 34 | 70.3 | 51% |
| Differdange FC 03 | 33 | 68.7 | 39% |
| FC Atert Bissen | 25 | 63 | 8% |
| Racing Union Luxembourg | 22 | 58.6 | 1% |
| US Mondorf-les-Bains | 27 | 57.5 | 1% |
| UN Kaerjeng 97 | 21 | 53 | <1% |
| FC Progres Niederkorn | 22 | 49.3 | <1% |
| F91 Dudelange | 16 | 42.6 | 0% |
| FC Residence Walferdange | 17 | 37.4 | 0% |
| AS Jeunesse Esch | 13 | 34 | 0% |
| US Hostert | 11 | 32.4 | 0% |
| US Rumelange | 11 | 30.5 | 0% |
| Victoria Rosport | 11 | 26.3 | 0% |
| Etzella Ettelbruck | 8 | 23.8 | 0% |
| Wiltz 71 | 6 | 23.3 | 0% |
| Swift Hesperange | 0 | 8.4 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNA Strassen | 51 | 33 | 12 | 3 | ||||||||||||
| Differdange FC 03 | 39 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||||
| FC Atert Bissen | 8 | 20 | 37 | 21 | 10 | 3 | ||||||||||
| Racing Union Luxembourg | 1 | 6 | 19 | 31 | 26 | 13 | 4 | |||||||||
| US Mondorf-les-Bains | 4 | 13 | 24 | 29 | 20 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||
| UN Kaerjeng 97 | 4 | 11 | 21 | 35 | 22 | 5 | ||||||||||
| FC Progres Niederkorn | 3 | 10 | 23 | 42 | 16 | 4 | ||||||||||
| F91 Dudelange | 1 | 5 | 17 | 46 | 19 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| FC Residence Walferdange | 4 | 17 | 33 | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||||||||
| AS Jeunesse Esch | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 22 | 14 | 7 | 3 | ||||||||
| US Hostert | 4 | 14 | 22 | 23 | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||
| US Rumelange | 2 | 7 | 14 | 20 | 24 | 16 | 11 | 5 | ||||||||
| Victoria Rosport | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 24 | 17 | |||||||||
| Etzella Ettelbruck | 2 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 28 | 35 | ||||||||||
| Wiltz 71 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | 39 | ||||||||||
| Swift Hesperange | 1 | 98 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 144 remaining matches · data version 1n5o5w. 144 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.