FootballSeason 26/27M League season simulation
Model estimate Shan United FC — 67% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shan United FC | 10 | 51.4 | 67% | 0% |
| Yangon United FC | 9 | 47.4 | 27% | 0% |
| Yangon City FC | 14 | 43.1 | 5% | 0% |
| Dagon Star United FC | 13 | 37.8 | 1% | <1% |
| Yadanarbon FC | 10 | 31.7 | <1% | <1% |
| Sagaing United FC | 7 | 27.1 | 0% | 4% |
| Hantharwady United FC | 7 | 26.3 | 0% | 5% |
| ISPE | 7 | 25.6 | 0% | 7% |
| Thitsar Arman FC | 5 | 23.4 | 0% | 13% |
| Chinland FC | 4 | 22.8 | 0% | 17% |
| Ayeyawady United FC | 3 | 17.3 | 0% | 67% |
| Myawady FC | 1 | 13.6 | 0% | 88% |
TitleRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shan United FC | 67 | 25 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||
| Yangon United FC | 27 | 46 | 21 | 5 | ||||||||
| Yangon City FC | 5 | 22 | 48 | 20 | 4 | |||||||
| Dagon Star United FC | 6 | 20 | 49 | 16 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Yadanarbon FC | 4 | 15 | 38 | 20 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| Sagaing United FC | 4 | 14 | 21 | 20 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | ||||
| Hantharwady United FC | 3 | 10 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 4 | ||||
| ISPE | 2 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 6 | 1 | |||
| Thitsar Arman FC | 5 | 10 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 20 | 10 | 3 | ||||
| Chinland FC | 4 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| Ayeyawady United FC | 2 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 41 | 26 | ||||||
| Myawady FC | 1 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 65 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 100 remaining matches · data version 1d0kjv. 100 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.