FootballSeason 26/27J.League season simulation
Model estimate FC Tokyo — 56% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 33 | 78.8 | 56% | 90% | 0% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 30 | 73.1 | 18% | 64% | 0% |
| FC Machida Zelvia | 29 | 72 | 12% | 57% | 0% |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 31 | 70.8 | 9% | 45% | 0% |
| Vissel Kobe | 27 | 67.9 | 3% | 27% | 0% |
| Kashima Antlers | 23 | 64.1 | 1% | 12% | 0% |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 22 | 57.5 | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 22 | 57.5 | <1% | 2% | <1% |
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 22 | 57.6 | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Cerezo Osaka | 17 | 48.4 | 0% | <1% | 2% |
| Fagiano Okayama FC | 17 | 46.3 | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 16 | 46.1 | <1% | <1% | 3% |
| Nagoya Grampus Eight | 14 | 45.8 | 0% | 0% | 4% |
| Gamba Osaka | 12 | 44.9 | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 40.1 | 0% | 0% | 17% |
| Tokyo Verdy | 14 | 38.8 | 0% | 0% | 25% |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 37.6 | 0% | 0% | 33% |
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 13 | 35.2 | 0% | 0% | 49% |
| Mito HollyHock | 9 | 31.5 | 0% | 0% | 74% |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 28.9 | 0% | 0% | 86% |
TitleChampions LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 56 | 22 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 18 | 25 | 21 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| FC Machida Zelvia | 12 | 22 | 23 | 19 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||||
| Vissel Kobe | 3 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Kashima Antlers | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Kawasaki Frontale | 1 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Urawa Red Diamonds | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||
| Fagiano Okayama FC | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||
| Kyoto Sanga FC | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||||||||
| Nagoya Grampus Eight | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Gamba Osaka | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| V-Varen Nagasaki | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||
| Tokyo Verdy | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 8 | 3 | |||||||||
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 11 | 5 | |||||||||
| JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 12 | ||||||||||
| Mito HollyHock | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 28 | 28 | ||||||||||||
| Avispa Fukuoka | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 25 | 48 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 240 remaining matches · data version 16r5fm. 240 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.