FootballSeason 26/27Greece Cup, Main Round season simulation
Model estimate AEK Athens — 34% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 6 | 64.3 | 34% |
| Panathinaikos | 9 | 62.8 | 23% |
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 9 | 62.5 | 22% |
| PAOK FC | 7 | 62.1 | 20% |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 4 | 47.7 | <1% |
| OFI Crete FC | 4 | 47.4 | <1% |
| Atromitos Athens FC | 6 | 44.4 | <1% |
| AE Kifisia FC | 4 | 43.6 | <1% |
| Kalamata FC | 5 | 40.5 | 0% |
| Asteras Tripolis | 4 | 39.4 | 0% |
| GE Marko | 1 | 32.5 | 0% |
| AEL Larissa 1964 | 4 | 31.6 | 0% |
| PAE Volos | 1 | 29.9 | 0% |
| Niki Volos FC | 3 | 26.4 | 0% |
| Panserraikos | 0 | 14.9 | 0% |
| Nestos Chrysoupoli FC | 0 | 11.9 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 34 | 27 | 21 | 14 | 3 | |||||||||||
| Panathinaikos | 23 | 24 | 24 | 21 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Olympiacos Piraeus | 22 | 24 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 1 | ||||||||||
| PAOK FC | 20 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Aris Thessaloniki | 2 | 7 | 25 | 22 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
| OFI Crete FC | 2 | 6 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| Atromitos Athens FC | 3 | 12 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||||||
| AE Kifisia FC | 2 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Kalamata FC | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 5 | 3 | ||||||
| Asteras Tripolis | 3 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| GE Marko | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 21 | 19 | 10 | 1 | ||||||
| AEL Larissa 1964 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 1 | |||||||
| PAE Volos | 2 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 25 | 20 | 2 | ||||||||
| Niki Volos FC | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 24 | 44 | 5 | |||||||||
| Panserraikos | 1 | 7 | 59 | 33 | ||||||||||||
| Nestos Chrysoupoli FC | 2 | 31 | 66 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 216 remaining matches · data version a8f2ro. 216 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.