FootballSeason 26/27Federation Cup, Group B season simulation
Model estimate FC Bashundhara Kings — 67% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bashundhara Kings | 6 | 26.6 | 67% |
| Mohammedan SC Dhaka | 4 | 23.4 | 24% |
| Bangladesh Police FC | 1 | 20.1 | 7% |
| MSPCC City Club | 1 | 17.6 | 2% |
| PWD Sports Club | 1 | 13.8 | <1% |
| Arambagh KS | 1 | 7.6 | 0% |
| Dhaka Wanderers | 1 | 5.4 | 0% |
TitlexPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Bashundhara Kings | 67 | 24 | 7 | 2 | |||
| Mohammedan SC Dhaka | 24 | 45 | 21 | 8 | 1 | ||
| Bangladesh Police FC | 7 | 21 | 39 | 25 | 8 | ||
| MSPCC City Club | 2 | 9 | 25 | 43 | 19 | 2 | |
| PWD Sports Club | 1 | 8 | 20 | 58 | 11 | 2 | |
| Arambagh KS | 1 | 11 | 60 | 28 | |||
| Dhaka Wanderers | 3 | 27 | 70 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 36 remaining matches · data version 1eltoj. 36 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.