FootballSeason 26/27Eredivisie season simulation
Model estimate PSV Eindhoven — 60% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 26 | 74.1 | 60% | 81% | 11% | 8% | 0% |
| Twente | 24 | 67.3 | 12% | 34% | 23% | 43% | 0% |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 25 | 67.3 | 11% | 34% | 23% | 44% | 0% |
| AZ Alkmaar | 23 | 66.3 | 8% | 24% | 21% | 54% | 0% |
| Ajax Amsterdam | 25 | 66 | 8% | 25% | 21% | 54% | 0% |
| Heerenveen | 21 | 55.5 | <1% | 1% | 2% | 85% | <1% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 20 | 47.9 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 41% | <1% |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 44 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 18% | 2% |
| Groningen | 15 | 43.1 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 16% | 3% |
| NEC Nijmegen | 14 | 41.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11% | 5% |
| SC Cambuur Leeuwarden | 15 | 40.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 8% |
| Utrecht | 12 | 40.5 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 7% | 8% |
| SC Telstar | 10 | 39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 11% |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 38.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 12% |
| ADO Den Haag | 9 | 34.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 34% |
| SBV Excelsior | 11 | 34 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 40% |
| PEC Zwolle | 12 | 29.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 75% |
| Willem II Tilburg | 3 | 15.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 60 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Twente | 12 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| Feyenoord Rotterdam | 11 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 5 | ||||||||||||
| AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 16 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 7 | ||||||||||||
| Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Heerenveen | 2 | 6 | 14 | 49 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Fortuna Sittard | 2 | 12 | 27 | 19 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2 | ||||||||
| Go Ahead Eagles | 4 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
| Groningen | 4 | 11 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | |||||||
| NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1 | ||||||
| SC Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||||||
| Utrecht | 1 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||||||
| SC Telstar | 4 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 4 | |||||||
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 4 | |||||||
| ADO Den Haag | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 14 | ||||||||
| SBV Excelsior | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 18 | ||||||||
| PEC Zwolle | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 50 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Willem II Tilburg | 2 | 97 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 198 remaining matches · data version 186pem. 198 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.