FootballSeason 2026Eliteserien season simulation
Model estimate FK Bodo/Glimt — 51% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodo/Glimt | 62 | 70.5 | 51% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Viking FK | 62 | 70.1 | 49% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Rosenborg | 46 | 53.4 | 0% | 0% | 70% | 20% | 0% | 0% |
| Lillestrom SK | 45 | 50.9 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 46% | 0% | 0% |
| Molde FK | 44 | 49.3 | 0% | 0% | 13% | 28% | 0% | 0% |
| Tromso IL | 40 | 45.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 6% | 0% | 0% |
| SK Brann | 33 | 39.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
| Valerenga | 32 | 36.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | <1% | <1% |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 31 | 35.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% | <1% |
| Fredrikstad FK | 30 | 35.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 1% |
| KFUM Oslo | 31 | 35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4% | <1% |
| HamKam | 30 | 34.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8% | 1% |
| Sandefjord Fotball | 28 | 33.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 2% |
| Kristiansund BK | 26 | 30.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 47% | 18% |
| Aalesunds FK | 24 | 27.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 78% |
| IK Start | 19 | 23 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 99% |
TitleChampions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Bodo/Glimt | 51 | 49 | ||||||||||||||
| Viking FK | 49 | 51 | ||||||||||||||
| Rosenborg | 70 | 20 | 9 | |||||||||||||
| Lillestrom SK | 16 | 46 | 27 | 10 | ||||||||||||
| Molde FK | 13 | 28 | 47 | 12 | ||||||||||||
| Tromso IL | 6 | 16 | 72 | 6 | ||||||||||||
| SK Brann | 5 | 60 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||||||
| Valerenga | 13 | 31 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | |||||||||
| Sarpsborg 08 FF | 9 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||||||||
| Fredrikstad FK | 4 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 1 | |||||||
| KFUM Oslo | 4 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 20 | 19 | 15 | 4 | ||||||||
| HamKam | 2 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 8 | 1 | |||||||
| Sandefjord Fotball | 1 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 20 | 16 | 2 | |||||||
| Kristiansund BK | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 47 | 17 | |||||||||
| Aalesunds FK | 2 | 3 | 16 | 71 | 7 | |||||||||||
| IK Start | 1 | 7 | 92 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 32 remaining matches · data version fq3fp5. 32 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.