FootballSeason 2026Allsvenskan season simulation
Model estimate Hammarby IF — 75% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Conference League | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby IF | 58 | 62 | 75% | 25% | 0% | 0% |
| IK Sirius FK | 58 | 61.1 | 25% | 75% | 0% | 0% |
| Djurgardens IF | 52 | 55.3 | 0% | 93% | 0% | 0% |
| BK Hacken | 49 | 51.4 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 0% |
| IF Elfsborg | 46 | 48.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Vasteras SK | 45 | 47.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Malmo FF | 41 | 44.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| AIK | 41 | 44.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| GAIS | 40 | 42.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| IFK Goteborg | 39 | 40.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| IF Brommapojkarna | 35 | 37.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Mjallby AIF | 28 | 30.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Kalmar FF | 26 | 28.6 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Orgryte IS | 20 | 22.7 | 0% | 0% | 43% | 56% |
| Degerfors IF | 20 | 22.1 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 60% |
| Halmstads BK | 20 | 22.1 | 0% | 0% | 16% | 84% |
TitleConference LeagueRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby IF | 75 | 25 | ||||||||||||||
| IK Sirius FK | 25 | 70 | 5 | |||||||||||||
| Djurgardens IF | 5 | 87 | 7 | |||||||||||||
| BK Hacken | 7 | 77 | 15 | |||||||||||||
| IF Elfsborg | 14 | 59 | 20 | 6 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Vasteras SK | 2 | 19 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Malmo FF | 4 | 17 | 35 | 26 | 16 | 2 | ||||||||||
| AIK | 1 | 11 | 27 | 37 | 22 | 2 | ||||||||||
| GAIS | 2 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 47 | 11 | ||||||||||
| IFK Goteborg | 3 | 12 | 71 | 13 | ||||||||||||
| IF Brommapojkarna | 1 | 13 | 86 | |||||||||||||
| Mjallby AIF | 81 | 19 | ||||||||||||||
| Kalmar FF | 19 | 79 | 1 | |||||||||||||
| Orgryte IS | 43 | 31 | 25 | |||||||||||||
| Degerfors IF | 40 | 30 | 29 | |||||||||||||
| Halmstads BK | 16 | 38 | 46 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 16 remaining matches · data version 1rn3mq. 16 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.