GermanyFootballSeason 26/272. Bundesliga season simulation
Model estimate Hertha — 78% title chance
Updated
Chances
| Team | Pts | xPts | Title | Promotion | Promotion play-off | Relegation play-off | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 31 | 72.8 | 78% | 95% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| 1. FC Nurnberg | 24 | 64.4 | 16% | 61% | 23% | 0% | 0% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 19 | 59.8 | 5% | 28% | 33% | <1% | 0% |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 21 | 55.6 | 1% | 9% | 19% | <1% | <1% |
| 1.FC Magdeburg | 20 | 51.8 | <1% | 4% | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| Arminia Bielefeld | 17 | 51.2 | <1% | 3% | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| VfL Bochum | 14 | 46.6 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 | 16 | 44.7 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Hannover 96 | 12 | 43.4 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 4% | 5% |
| St. Pauli | 12 | 42.1 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 7% |
| Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 41.8 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 6% | 8% |
| Energie Cottbus | 11 | 41.2 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 7% | 9% |
| Karlsruher | 11 | 39.5 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 10% | 17% |
| Darmstadt 98 | 9 | 39.1 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 9% | 17% |
| Holstein Kiel | 8 | 36.7 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 12% | 27% |
| Greuther Furth | 12 | 36.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 13% | 29% |
| VfL Osnabruck | 11 | 35.3 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 14% | 38% |
| Eintracht Braunschweig | 11 | 35.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 39% |
TitlePromotionPromotion play-offRelegation play-offRelegationxPts = Expected final points
Percentages: the share of the simulated seasons that end in that range of places — the stronger the colour, the likelier.
Final position probabilities
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha | 78 | 17 | 4 | |||||||||||||||
| 1. FC Nurnberg | 16 | 45 | 23 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| VfL Wolfsburg | 5 | 23 | 33 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 8 | 19 | 25 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| 1.FC Magdeburg | 3 | 9 | 16 | 19 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| Arminia Bielefeld | 2 | 8 | 14 | 18 | 16 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||||
| VfL Bochum | 2 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1.FC Heidenheim 1846 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| Hannover 96 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |||
| St. Pauli | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | |||
| Dynamo Dresden | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | |||
| Energie Cottbus | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 4 | ||||
| Karlsruher | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | ||||
| Darmstadt 98 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 8 | ||||
| Holstein Kiel | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | |||||
| Greuther Furth | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | |||||
| VfL Osnabruck | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 21 | ||||||
| Eintracht Braunschweig | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
Model estimate from 10,000 simulated seasons: every remaining match is played with goal rates from both teams’ attack and defence (our global team rating, every league and cup on one scale, blended with a Dixon-Coles model of the league’s own results; recent matches weigh more), then the table is ranked with the tie-break rules. A probability, not a prediction of any single result. 207 remaining matches · data version ffbgoy. 207 pairings without a date yet were added from the double round robin.