54' — Venezia took the lead: 1-0. Toma Basic scored it. 57' — Udinese equalised: 1-1. An own goal by Matías Moreno. 66' — Venezia went back in front: 2-1. Enrique Perez scored it. Venezia won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
VeneziaDrawUdinese
Pre-match model estimate: Venezia 40%, draw 28%, Udinese 32%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Venezia win in 40% of the simulated matches, 28% end level and Udinese win 32%. Average goals 2.3; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%); both teams score in 47%. About 9.7 corners on average. About 3.3 yellow cards on average; a red card in 17%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Venezia got the better of Udinese, winning 2-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo. It was 0-0 at half-time.
How the match unfolded
It was Venezia 0-0 Udinese at half-time.
Venezia took the lead on 54 minutes thanks to Toma Basic. Udinese drew level at 1-1 in the 57th minute: an own goal from Matías Moreno. A Udinese goal stood after a VAR check in the 61st minute. Just 5 minutes later (66') Venezia went 2-1 up, Enrique Perez on target. The officials disallowed a Venezia goal on 81 minutes.
What the numbers say
Corners finished 3-7.
What it means
Venezia climb from 20th to 19th on 6 points. Udinese slip to 20th (5 points), having started the day 19th. 3 defeats in a row come to an end for Venezia. The wait for a win goes on for Udinese: 10 matches now.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Serie A
