Atletico Morelia vs Venados FC: the story of the match
21' — Atletico Morelia took the lead: 1-0. Edgar Martínez scored it. 39' — Venados FC equalised: 1-1. Sleyther De Jesús Lora Hernández scored it. Half time: 1-1.
76' — Atletico Morelia went back in front: 2-1. Alejandro Andrade scored it. Atletico Morelia won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Atletico MoreliaDrawVenados FC
Pre-match model estimate: Atletico Morelia 55%, draw 23%, Venados FC 22%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Atletico Morelia win in 55% of the simulated matches, 23% end level and Venados FC win 22%. Average goals 3.0; the most likely score is 1-1 (10%); both teams score in 56%. About 10.1 corners on average. About 5.1 yellow cards on average; a red card in 39%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
The officials disallowed a Atletico Morelia goal on 21 minutes. Atletico Morelia took the lead on 21 minutes thanks to Edgar Martínez. Venados FC drew level at 1-1 in the 39th minute: Sleyther De Jesús Lora Hernández. Half-time: 1-1 between Atletico Morelia and Venados FC.
Atletico Morelia went 2-1 up on 76 minutes thanks to Alejandro Andrade.
Match statistics
The shot count read 3-3, 3-2 on target. Corners finished 9-1. Dangerous attacks: 68 for Atletico Morelia, 30 for Venados FC.
The bigger picture
Atletico Morelia have now scored in 12 consecutive matches.
Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura
