1' — CA La Paz took the lead: 1-0. Martín Barragán scored it. 39' — CA La Paz extended the lead: 2-0. Jorge Ferrero scored it. Half time: 2-0.
49' — Tlaxcala FC pulled one back: 2-1. Erick Emanuel Robles Hernandez scored it. 53' — CA La Paz extended the lead: 3-1. Ángel Robles scored it. 65' — Tlaxcala FC pulled one back: 3-2. Jesús Hernández scored it. 90' — Tlaxcala FC equalised: 3-3. Giovani Hernández scored it. It came in the closing minutes. The match ended 3-3. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
CA La PazDrawTlaxcala FC
Pre-match model estimate: CA La Paz 61%, draw 19%, Tlaxcala FC 20%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): CA La Paz win in 61% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and Tlaxcala FC win 20%. Average goals 3.6; the most likely score is 2-1 (9%); both teams score in 65%. About 10.0 corners on average. About 5.0 yellow cards on average; a red card in 38%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
CA La Paz took the lead in the 1st minute: Martín Barragán. CA La Paz extended their lead to 2-0 in the 39th minute: Jorge Ferrero. Half-time: 2-0, CA La Paz in front.
Tlaxcala FC pulled one back to make it 2-1 in the 49th minute: Erick Emanuel Robles Hernandez. CA La Paz extended their lead to 3-1 in the 53rd minute: Ángel Robles. Tlaxcala FC pulled one back to make it 3-2 in the 65th minute: Jesús Hernández. Tlaxcala FC drew level at 3-3 on 90 minutes thanks to Giovani Hernández.
The statistics
CA La Paz had 9 shots (6 on target) to Tlaxcala FC's 5 (4). CA La Paz won 2 corners, Tlaxcala FC 13. Tlaxcala FC produced 64 dangerous attacks to CA La Paz's 47.
What it means
The result ends CA La Paz's run of 3 straight wins. Across 11 meetings in our records: 5 wins for CA La Paz, 1 win for Tlaxcala FC and 5 draws.
Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura
