Leones Negros UDG vs Alacranes de Durango: the story of the match
25' — Leones Negros UDG took the lead: 1-0. 40' — Leones Negros UDG extended the lead: 2-0. Half time: 2-0.
52' — Alacranes de Durango pulled one back: 2-1. Leones Negros UDG won 2-1.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
Leones Negros UDGDrawAlacranes de Durango
Pre-match model estimate: Leones Negros UDG 51%, draw 24%, Alacranes de Durango 25%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): Leones Negros UDG win in 51% of the simulated matches, 24% end level and Alacranes de Durango win 25%. Average goals 2.7; the most likely score is 1-1 (12%); both teams score in 53%. About 9.9 corners on average. About 5.2 yellow cards on average; a red card in 38%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
Leones Negros UDG – Alacranes de Durango match report
Leones Negros UDG took the lead on 25 minutes thanks to Sergio Hernandez. Leones Negros UDG extended their lead to 2-0 on 40 minutes thanks to Juan Brigido. Half-time: 2-0, Leones Negros UDG in front.
José Luis Osmar Múñoz Villagómez reduced the deficit for Alacranes de Durango to 2-1 after 52 minutes. Alacranes de Durango had a goal ruled out in the 53rd minute.
What the numbers say
Leones Negros UDG won 3 corners, Alacranes de Durango 8.
What the result means
Alacranes de Durango have now scored in 5 consecutive matches.
Coming up
Leones Negros UDG's next match is away to Atletico Morelia on 13 November.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
Liga de Expansion MX, Apertura
