3' — LASK Linz took the lead: 0-1. Christoph Lang scored it. 32' — SV Ried equalised: 1-1. An own goal by Miguel Freckleton. 37' — SV Ried completed the turnaround: 2-1. Ante Bajic scored it. 39' — LASK Linz equalised: 2-2. Alemão scored it. Half time: 2-2.
90' — LASK Linz completed the turnaround: 2-3. Moses Usor scored it. It came in the closing minutes. 90' — LASK Linz extended the lead: 2-4. It came in the closing minutes. LASK Linz won 2-4. The decisive goal came in the closing minutes.
Chances to win
Model estimate
FT
Start45'90'
SV RiedDrawLASK Linz
Pre-match model estimate: SV Ried 18%, draw 19%, LASK Linz 63%.
How is this calculated?
This is our own statistical model: before kick-off, each team's strength comes from a global team rating built on our results — every league and cup on one scale, linked through European and other cross-league matches — blended with the league's own results when both teams play in it. During the match it is updated with the minute, the score, red cards and the last 15 minutes of pressure (a Poisson goal model with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores). Without enough data on both teams we show no percentages. It is a probability, not a certainty.
Who is pressing?
No detailed data in this league — the pressure index is not guessed.
Match simulation
Model estimate · 20,000 simulations
What the pre-match simulation said
Preparing the simulation…
Before kick-off: Model simulation (20,000 runs): SV Ried win in 18% of the simulated matches, 19% end level and LASK Linz win 63%. Average goals 3.4; the most likely score is 1-2 (10%); both teams score in 61%. About 9.8 corners on average. About 4.5 yellow cards on average; a red card in 19%.
Previous meetings and form
The percentages in this tab are estimates of the ScoreMondo statistical model, not certainties.
LASK Linz came from behind to beat SV Ried4-2 in the Bundesliga.
How the match unfolded
LASK Linz took the lead on 3 minutes thanks to Christoph Lang. SV Ried drew level at 1-1 in the 32nd minute: an own goal from Miguel Freckleton. SV Ried completed the turnaround at 2-1 in the 37th minute: Ante Bajic. LASK Linz drew level at 2-2 in the 39th minute: Alemão. It was SV Ried 2-2 LASK Linz at half-time.
LASK Linz completed the turnaround at 3-2 in the 90th minute: Moses Usor. Late on, in the 90th minute, LASK Linz extended their lead to 4-2.
The statistics
The shot count read 2-5, 1-3 on target. Corners finished 4-3. Dangerous attacks: 87 for LASK Linz, 59 for SV Ried.
The bigger picture
SV Ried remain 6th, now with 16 points. LASK Linz stay 3rd on 25 points. The wait for a win goes on for SV Ried: 4 matches now. That is 4 straight wins for LASK Linz.
This text is written automatically from our match data; every number and name in it comes from that data.
